End of the gasoline engine?

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An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:

The gasoline engine has been with us for more than a century already, and its environmental damage has been prodding our conscience to lower carbon emissions. Although there are other contributors to our pollution woes, the automobile one seems a sector society is most ready to act on. For passenger cars, two options are already here - electric car, or hydrogen fuel-cell car. I think where this will turn will likely be dependent on two big countries - USA, and China, where most cars are used. Me, well, it will be a pocket-book decision, for my next car I am eyeing a hybrid-engine, not one of the two mentioned, will just wait and see how things turn out.

Cheers!

http://driving.ca/auto-news/news/mot...ydrogen-future

Motor Mouth: Is the end (of gasoline engines) near?

Toyota believes the automotive future will be dominated by hydrogen fuel cells – and with its track record, Toyota might be right
By David Booth
Originally published: October 23, 2015
Even released in the maelstrom that is the Volkswagen dieselgate scandal, it was stunning news: Last week, Toyota committed to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of its entire fleet of new cars — some 10.2 million per year, or about 14 per cent of annual global production — by 90 per cent by 2050. Traditionally-powered vehicles will represent but a sliver of its fleet – probably reduced to large trucks and other specialty vehicles – replaced instead, says senior managing officer Kiyotaka Ise, by hybrids and fuel cell-powered vehicles. “You may think 35 years is a long time,” said Ise in Tokyo last Wednesday, “but for an automaker to envision all combustion engines as gone is pretty extraordinary.”
Most interesting was that electric vehicles barely warranted a mention in Toyota’s announcement, the company seemingly committing to the fuel cell just as battery-powered electric vehicles are garnering media acceptance. It’s a huge commitment since fuel cells barely warrant a footnote in the war on automotive emissions (Toyota sold 350 of its hydrogen-fueled Mirai in Japan last year and only this week went on sale in the United States), and hybrids have been stuck at three per cent of the North American market share for the better part of the last decade.

Most interesting is that this puts Toyota on a collision course with media darling Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO labeling hydrogen-fueled cars “a load of rubbish.” What’s also interesting about this seeming soap opera drama — Musk calls the hydrogen-based technology “fool cells” — is that, while the average consumer thinks of them as radically different technologies, both battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) are, well, electric vehicles. Both are powered by electric motors, both are monitored by similar electronic control units and both promise zero tailpipe emissions. Indeed, the only difference between the two is how they store their electricity, BEVs using a battery — usually lithium ion — to store kilowatts while the FCEV’s “fool cell” runs on hydrogen.

The main difference in their performance, therefore, is not how they drive or what they emit but how — and, more importantly, where — you refuel them. BEVs, with Tesla’s Supercharging stations notwithstanding, are designed to be recharged at home, usually at night. Although much is made of the need for a worldwide electric recharging infrastructure, many EV owners simply use their Leafs and i-MiEVs locally, seldom using what recharging infrastructure there is. Fuel cell vehicles, on the other hand, will definitely need a large — and costly — refueling network, their “gas” stations mirroring, to a large extent, our current gasoline framework, all the way from production facility to retail outlets.
That would seem a huge advantage for Tesla were it not for the fact that, like a traditional car, fuel cells generally have a greater range than BEVs and, more importantly, can be replenished in the same five minutes or so that a conventional automobile can. BEV advocates continually maintain such convenience is a non-issue — “who doesn’t want to stop every time they gas up?” being a constant refrain. Nonetheless, BEVs, regardless of Tesla’s headline-generating success, still account for less than a quarter of one per cent of the global new car market.
Critics of fuel cells state hydrogen is difficult to store; the high pressures and cold temperatures require a stress on both the refueling infrastructure and the car’s fuel tank. They also note that methane reforming — just one of the ways to produce hydrogen — pollutes just as much as conventional cars. And, of course, as Brooke Crothers did in Forbes, naysayers will claim that “Tesla is about 35 years ahead of” Toyota’s ambitious goal of fleet-wide emissions reduction.
Nonetheless, Toyota is betting big-time on fuel cells, hoping to sell as many as 30,000 per year by 2020, at which point it hopes to have cut its carbon dioxide emissions by 22 per cent. This will require an investment, says Toyota, of 500 billion yen ($5.5 billion), not to mention the investment that will be required by suppliers who, having already geared up for the expensive transition to BEVs, may now face yet another heavy investment.

But, perhaps the strongest — certainly the most surprising — indicator of how serious Toyota is about its commitment to fuel cells may be a YouTube video posted in April. Extolling the benefits of hydrogen and its fuel cell-powered Mirai, the video is called “Fueled by Bullsh*t” — part of Toyota’s “Fueled by Everything” promotional campaign. When ultra-conservative Toyota, perhaps the most hidebound company in the automotive industry, leads its promotional campaign with scatological bovine references, you know there’s paradigm-shifting change afoot.
Of course, with 35 years to completion and precious few details of the entire program released, it’s impossible to predict the future success of Toyota’s mission. Indeed, critics already note that, since hybrids are at least partly gasoline-powered, a 90 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions sounds practically impossible. Of course, Toyota may be contemplating an all-electric hybrid, a combination of battery (for low-cost, home-refueled city use) and fuel cell (offering convenient, quickly refueled highway range) that no one has dared even dream about yet.
Whatever its exact plans, it’s obvious that there is now a serious battle for the hearts — and wallets — of the environmentally aware. Who are you going to bet on? The upstart that’s been peddling playthings to the spoiled rich? Or the world’s most successful automaker, whose very success has been built on bringing innovation — including the environmentally friendly variety — to a cost-conscious mass audience? I know who my money’s on.


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